2020年还将延续“史上最热年份”

2019年夏季，多国气温打破当地最高纪录，人们“花式”应对破纪录高温也屡上新闻头条。但近日英国气象局预测称，虽然2020年出现强厄尔尼诺现象的几率较小，但仍将是热浪滚滚的一年。

 

Next year will continue the global warming trend with temperatures again likely to rise more than one degree above pre-industrial levels.

明年全球变暖的趋势将继续，气温可能再次比工业化前的水平上升1摄氏度以上。

 

 

 

According to the Met Office, 2020 will likely be 1.11C warmer than the average between 1850-1900.

根据英国气象局的数据，2020年的气温可能比1850-1900年间的平均气温高1.11摄氏度。

 

The year ahead is set to extend the series of the warmest years on record to six in a row.

2020年，将是连续第6个有记录以来最热年份。

 

Scientists say the strongest factor causing the rise is greenhouse gas emissions.

科学家表示，导致气温升高的最主要因素是温室气体排放增加。

 

The world first broke through one degree above pre-industrial temperatures back in 2015.

2015年，全球气温首次比工业化前水平升高1摄氏度。

 

Each year since then has seen temperatures close to or above this mark.

从那以后，每年的气温都接近或高于这一水平。

 

The warmest year on record is 2016 when a strong El Niño made a significant difference.

有记录以来最热的一年是2016年，是由当年的强厄尔尼诺现象导致的。

 

This weather phenomenon sees sea surface temperatures increase in the central and eastern Pacific and it’s associated with a range of impacts around the world, including the overall global level of warming.

厄尔尼诺现象使太平洋中部和东部的海面温度升高，给世界各地造成一系列影响，包括整体的全球变暖水平。

 

According to the Met Office, the chances of a strong El Niño in 2020 are low.

根据英国气象局的数据，2020年出现强厄尔尼诺现象的几率很低。

 

The researchers say that the key factor will be emissions of CO2 and other warming gases.

研究人员表示，关键因素将是二氧化碳和其他温室气体的排放。

 

“Natural events - such as El Niño-induced warming in the Pacific - influence the climate system, but in the absence of El Niño, this forecast gives a clear picture of the strongest factor causing temperatures to rise - greenhouse gas emissions,” said Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office head of long-range prediction.

“自然事件——比如厄尔尼诺现象导致的太平洋变暖——会影响气候系统，但在没有厄尔尼诺现象的情况下，这个预测明确指出了导致气温上升的最大因素——温室气体排放”，英国气象局的长期预测负责人亚当•斯凯夫教授说。

 

According to researchers, carbon dioxide emissions this year have risen slightly, despite a drop in the use of coal.

研究人员表示，尽管煤炭使用量有所下降，但今年二氧化碳排放量略有增加。

 

 

 

The Global Carbon Project’s annual analysis of emission trends suggests that CO2 will go up by 0.6% in 2019.

全球碳项目对排放趋势的年度分析显示，截至2019年，二氧化碳排放将增加0.6%。

 

The rise is due to continuing strong growth in the utilisation of oil and gas.

这是由于石油和天然气的使用持续强劲增长。

 

The scale of emissions has a direct bearing on temperatures, scientists say.

科学家说，排放的规模与气温有直接关系。

 

Provisional figures released earlier this month by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggest 2019 is on course to be the second or third warmest year ever.

世界气象组织本月早些时候发布的初步数据显示，2019年将成为史上第二或第三热的年份。

 

If those numbers hold, 2015-2019 would end up being the warmest five-year period on record.

如果这些数字保持不变，2015-2019年将是有记录以来最热的五年。

 

The Met Office say they have confidence in their prediction for 2020 based on what’s happened in previous years.

英国气象局表示，根据前几年的情况，他们对2020年的预测有信心。

 

This time last year they estimated that 2019 would be 1.10C above the 1850-1900 mark. The actual temperature recorded this year from January to October shows a global mean 1.11C.

去年12月，他们预测2019年的气温将比1850-1900年高出1.10摄氏度。今年1月至10月的实际气温记录显示，全球平均升温幅度为1.11摄氏度。

 

With temperatures keeping close to the one degree mark, there will be renewed concern from scientists that the world is on track to breach the 1.5C limit that many researchers say is the threshold of increasingly dangerous impacts.

随着气温升幅保持在接近1摄氏度的水平，科学家们担忧，全球气温升幅将会突破1.5摄氏度的极限。许多研究人员表示，一旦突破这一幅度，将产生更加危险的影响。