TED | 为何疫苗总是姗姗来迟？

演讲精彩片段（节选）欣赏

Why is it that the Ebola vaccine wasn’t fully developed at this point? Well, partially, because it was really difficult - or thought to be difficult - to weaponize the virus, but mainly because of the financial risk in developing it. And this is really the point.

为什么埃博拉疫苗在这时候没有被完全地研发出来呢？有一部分是因为它确实很难，或是被想成很难－把病毒武器化，不过主要是因为要开发它的财务风险，而这真的就是关键。

The sad reality is, we develop vaccines not based upon the risk the pathogen poses to people, but on how economically risky it is to develop these vaccines. Vaccine development is expensive and complicated. It can cost hundreds of millions of dollars to take even a well-known antigen and turn it into a viable vaccine.

令人难过的现实就是我们研发疫苗不是基于病原体对人体造成的风险，却是基于研发这些疫苗经济上是如何冒风险的；疫苗的研发是既昂贵又繁琐的，它可以花到上亿美元把一个就算相当清楚的抗体转变成大有机会的疫苗。

Fortunately for diseases like Ebola, there are things we can do to remove some of these barriers. The first is to recognize when there’s a complete market failure. In that case, if we want vaccines, we have to provide incentives or some type of subsidy. We also need to do a better job at being able to figure out which are the diseases that most threaten us.

幸好对类似于“埃博拉”的疾病来讲，有着我们能移除些许阻碍的事情可做。首先是认知到当那里市场完全失能的时候，在那个案例里如果我们想要疫苗，我们得提供诱因或是某类补助，我们同样需要在有办法弄清楚威胁我们最大的疾病有哪些这档事上做得更好；

By creating capabilities within countries, we then create the ability for those countries to create epidemiological and laboratory networks which are capable of collecting and categorizing these pathogens. The data from that then can be used to understand the geographic and genetic diversity, which then can be used to help us understand how these are being changed immunologically, and what type of reactions they promote.

透过在国与国之间催生多种本事，我们接着为那些国家催生能力来建立流行病学和实验室的网络，该网络有办法收集和归类这些病原体。从那里得来的资料稍后可以被用来理解地理和基因的歧异性，那些接着可以被用来帮助我们理解这些病原体是如何在免疫学上被更改了，以及它们会促发什么样的反应。

So these are the things that can be done, but to do this, if we want to deal with a complete market failure, we have to change the way we view and prevent infectious diseases. We have to stop waiting until we see evidence of a disease becoming a global threat before we consider it as one.

这些是可以被做到的事情，不过要做到－假使我们想要解决市场完全失能的话，我们得要改变我们看待以及防治传染病的方式，我们必须停止直到我们看见疾病之证据前的空等－早在我们认定之前形成全球威胁。

So, for Ebola, the paranoid fear of an infectious disease, followed by a few cases transported to wealthy countries, led the global community to come together, and with the work of dedicated vaccine companies, we now have these: Two Ebola vaccines in efficacy trials in the Ebola countries - and a pipeline of vaccines that are following behind.

所以拿埃博拉病毒来说，对一种传染病疑神疑鬼的惧怕、接下来极少数的病例被转送到富裕的国家去，导致全球社会来携手合作；而且有了尽职的疫苗公司在做事，我们现在有了这些东西－在出现埃博拉的国家中有了两种临床疗效试验中的伊波拉疫苗，以及源源不绝的疫苗紧接其后。

Every year, we spend billions of dollars, keeping a fleet of nuclear submarines permanently patrolling the oceans to protect us from a threat that almost certainly will never happen. And yet, we spend virtually nothing to prevent something as tangible and evolutionarily certain as epidemic infectious diseases.

每一年我们花费掉数十亿美元维持核子潜艇舰队不间断地巡防大洋，以保护我们远离几乎铁定永远不会发生的威胁，再加上我们实际上没花钱来避免某种碰得到的以及肯定会进化的流行传染病。

And make no mistake about it - it’s not a question of “if,” but “when.” These bugs are going to continue to evolve and they’re going to threaten the world. And vaccines are our best defense. So if we want to be able to prevent epidemics like Ebola, we need to take on the risk of investing in vaccine development and in stockpile creation. And we need to view this, then, as the ultimate deterrent - something we make sure is available, but at the same time, praying we never have to use it.

而且别搞错了－这不是“会不会”而是“何时”的问题，这些病菌将会继续进化，而且它们将会威胁到全世界，而疫苗就是我们最佳的庇护。因此要是我们想要能够避免像伊波拉一般的传染病，我们必须冒投资在疫苗研发以及产生囤积的风险。我们必须正视这个然后当做终极遏制－我们要确保那是到手的东西，不过同一时间祈祷我们永远用不上它！