TED | 为什么我们总认为自己是对的

演讲简介

生活中我们可能也会遇到这样的人（也或者是我们自己），在很多事情上都会固执地认为自己是对的，即使最后事实证明错的是自己。这种思维模式究竟是怎么样的？本期TED嘉宾Julia Galef 就将带着我们一起解开这个谜团。一起来看看吧。

 

 

 

演讲精彩片段（节选）欣赏

 

What happened was, he had discovered evidence that the spying for Germany had continued, even after Dreyfus was in prison. And he had also discovered that another officer in the army had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo, much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting. So he brought these discoveries to his superiors, but to his dismay, they either didn't care or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings, like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting, and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left. But Dreyfus is still guilty." 

当时的情况是，他发现了一些证据表明德国间谍的活动还在继续，即便是在德雷福斯入狱之后。他还发现军队中另一个军官的笔迹跟那张纸上的笔迹完全匹配， 比德雷福斯的笔迹更加相符。因此他带着这些疑点找到他的上级，令人沮丧的是，他们要么不在乎，要么提出一些精心编造，想当然的理由去解释他的发现。比如说，“嗯，你的发现刚好证明另一个间谍模仿了德雷福斯的笔迹，并且接替了德雷福斯的间谍位置。但是德雷福斯仍然是有罪的。”

 

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated. But it took him 10 years, and for part of that time, he himself was in prison for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

最终，皮卡尔让德雷福斯重获清白。但是花了他10年的时间， 而且在这期间他自己也以对军队不忠的罪名被投入了监狱。

 

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with. But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic actually makes his actions more admirable, because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biasedas his fellow officers, but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

很多人觉得，在这个故事中皮卡尔算不上真正的英雄，因为他反犹太，我也同意这是他不好的一点。但就我个人而言，正是因为他反犹太，才使得他的行为更令人软佩，因为他跟那些同僚带有相同的偏见，也有相同的理由去倾向于有罪结论，但是他那种找出并维护真相的动力战胜了一切。

 

So to me, Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset." It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose, but just to see what's really there as honestly and accurately as you can, even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant. This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about. And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out what causes scout mindset. Why are some people, sometimes at least, able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations and just try to see the facts and the evidence as objectively as they can?

所以对我而言，皮卡尔就是我称之为 “侦察员型思维模式”中的典型代表。这不是非让两个想法分出输赢不可，而是尽可能诚实和准确地找出事实真相的一种驱动力，即使真相并不那么令人赏心悦目。这种思维模式是我个人所推崇的。过去几年我一直在调查并想找出侦察员型思维模式的成因。为什么有些人，至少在有些时候，能够去掉自己内心的歧视、偏见和倾向，而是尽可能尝试着客观地找出事实和证据。

 

And the answer is emotional. So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions like defensiveness or tribalism, scout mindset is, too. It's just rooted in different emotions. For example, scouts are curious.They're more likely to say they feel pleasure when they learn new information or an itch to solve a puzzle.They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something that contradicts their expectations.

而答案就是情感。就像士兵型思维模式是出于像防御性和部落主义这样的情感，侦察员型思维模式也一样。只不过是来源于不同的情感。例如，侦察员都有很强的好奇心。他们更可能会因为获得新的信息或渴望解开一个谜题而感到开心。他们会对那些与他们的预期不相符的事情更感兴趣。

 

Scouts also have different values. They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous to test your own beliefs, and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind seems weak. And above all, scouts are grounded, which means their self-worth as a person isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic. So they can believe that capital punishment works. If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say, "Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

侦察员也拥有不同的价值观。他们可能会觉得检验自己的信仰是一件善事，而可能不会说那些改变想法的人看起来很懦弱。总之，侦察员是以事实为根据的，也就是说他们的自我价值观不是跟他们在某个事件上的 对错绑在一起的。所以他们可能相信死刑能减少犯罪。 但如果研究表明它不能，他们可能会说“呵，看起来是我错了，但这并不说明我坏或者蠢。”

 

This cluster of traits is what researchers have found - and I've also found anecdotally - predicts good judgment. And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits is that they're primarily not about how smart you are or about how much you know. In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all. They're about how you feel. There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry. He's the author of "The Little Prince." He said, "If you want to build a ship, don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders and distribute the work. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

这就是研究人员所发现的特征——而且我也发现了——可以预测好的判断。而我想要强调的关于这些特征的关键点是它们根本上来说跟你有多聪明或者你知道多少无关。事实上，它们跟智商完全无关。它们跟你的感觉有关。我要引用圣埃克苏佩里的一句话。他是《小王子》的作者。他说，“如果你想造一艘船，不要雇人去收集木头，不要发号施令，也不要分配任务，而是去激发他们对海洋的渴望”。

 

In other words, I claim, if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals and as societies, what we need most is not more instruction in logic or rhetoric or probability or economics, even though those things are quite valuable. But what we most need to use those principles well is scout mindset. We need to change the way we feel. We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed when we notice we might have been wrong about something. We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensivewhen we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.

换句话说，我认为，如果我们真的想提高判断力，不管是作为个人还是作为社会，我们最需要的不是更多逻辑上，修辞上、概率上或者经济上的指导，即便这些东西也都很有价值。而我们要用好这些原理，最需要的就是侦察员型思维模式。我们需要改变我们感觉事物的方式。当我们注意到自己可能在某件事上出错了的时候，我们要感到自豪而不是羞愧。当我们遇到一些与我们的信仰相冲突的信息时，我们要学会感到好奇而不是抵触。

 

So the question I want to leave you with is: What do you most yearn for? Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs? Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

因此我想要留给你们的问题是：你最渴望什么？你是渴望保护你的信仰？还是渴望尽自己所能去看清这个世界？